There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for zone VTZ007.
FXUS61 KBTV 190547

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The weekend will feature slightly unsettled weather Saturday
and Saturday night with a few light showers. Sunday will be
mostly sunny, dry and warm. That sunny and warm weather will
continue Monday, allowing for perfect conditions to view the
solar eclipse. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
return for late Tuesday and into Wednesday.


As of 104 AM EDT Saturday...Line of showers continue to move
east across Vermont early this morning. The northern portions of
the line is weakening...but brief heavy downpours are possible
along the southern portion of the line. Have adjusted forecast
to focus precipitation over Vermont with nothing in northern New
York. Should still keep quite a bit of clouds around early this
morning along with the development of some fog...which going
forecast has covered well.

Saturday: Another day that will be on the slightly warm and
humid side, but not an uncommon mid-summer day. At upper levels,
there will be a trough off to our west, putting us in deep
southwest flow. However the mid/upper levels will still be
relatively dry, so this will limit the potential for convective
activity. Hi-res models do indicate a few hit or miss (but
mostly miss) showers developing during the day. As such, have
some 20-35% PoPs, highest across the higher terrain of northern
Vermont. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal,
with upper 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday Night: models all indicate the upper trough will be
passing overhead, and this passage will be accompanied by clouds
and a few light showers. Kept PoPs in the 25-35% range.


As of 350 PM EDT Friday...If you love outdoor summer activities,
Sunday will definitely be a day to take advantage of it. Plenty
of sunshine, temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and most
importantly lower dewpoints -- all thanks to high pressure
ridging and a west/northwest flow bringing in the drier air.


As of 350 PM EDT Friday...First...ECLIPSE. Partial for
CWA...basically 58-65 percent. Sky conditions looking very
favorable. Partial begins at BTV around 1725 UTC and ends around
1953 UTC according to NASA Eclipse sight.

Zonal flow across area on Monday with surface high south of
area, this will eventually allow for some increased humidity and
clouds but really not til Tuesday. A pretty nice eclipse day
with Highs in the 80s and sunshine.

The next system has been delayed as its awaiting a sharp, deep
shortwave from central Canada to drop across the Northern Plains
Tuesday and then rotate across the Great Lakes Tuesday night
and lift NE into Ontario/Quebec on Wednesday. The timing looking
like more of a Tue ngt-Wed feature. However...surface temps in
the M-U80s with rich dewpoints in the 60s and PWATs approaching
1.75 inches should produce SFC based CAPES in the 1000-1500
range at least. Also...despite the main dynamics and surface
front still across the Great Lakes, there are falling
heights...diffluent flow aloft and indications of some pre-
frontal trof, thus chance for t-storms will increase toward
evening...esp NY and Intl border. Wind dynamics don`t look too
favorable and timing may just be too late but still worth
watching as they will increase Tue ngt.

Leading, strong shortwave and surface front move through Tue
ngt- midday Wed. By Wed aftn...front should be just east of CWA.
Trof axis still west of CWA Wed ngt-Thu with surface high still
west as well. Therefore, some unstable flow but PWATs fall to
around 0.50 inches on Thu. Current thinking is largely mountain
upslope shower/sprinkle. Highs on Thu L-M70s.

Thu ngt-Fri deep trof axis passes area with surface high
pressure building into region thus primarily dry and cooler
temperatures. Highs in U60s-L-M70s. A cool start with lows in
the 40s/50s and some possible upper 30s. Friday ngt-Sat morning
should be as cool or cooler.


Through 06Z Sunday...Wide range of conditions expected across
the area with plenty of low level moisture around. Overall
looking at VFR to MVFR conditions...but there will be periods of
IFR to VLIFR ceilings of visibilities through 12z due to low
clouds and fog. After 12z enough mixing will take place to
remove the low clouds and fog with southwest winds in the 5 to
15 knot range. There may be a few showers that move across the
area after 22z...but should not have an impact on aviation.


Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.




NEAR TERM...Evenson/Nash

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion